In promising to fuse media as diverse as television,telephone communication,video games,music and data transmission,the era of digital convergence goes better than yesterday's celebrated “information superhighway.” Yet achieving this single technology is far from straightforward.There are currently three major television broadcast standards,and they are all incompatible with each other.But this is nothing compared to the many technologies supporting the Internet,each with a different bandwidth and physical media.The problems faced in designing platforms and communication systems that will be accepted across the world can appear insuperable.
Even once global standards are assured,however,a further obstacle lies in wait.The Internet is plagued by long,erratic response times because it is a pull-technology,driven by patterns of user demands.Push-technology,on the other hand,reverses the relationship: servers simply send information to passive users,as in television and radio.But if some form of combination between one-way television flow and interactive Internet is to be the basis of our future media,it is hard to see how it could be operated. Moreover,the problem of fusing Internet with television is also one of defining the services offered.Information,entertainment and relaxation appear at first to be quite different needs. Serious doubts remain over whether consumers will be interested in having to make the sort of mental effort associated with computing while also settling down in front of a sitcom.
Besides the issue of consumer habits,infrastructure costs are set to be immense,and will have to be met by national states or the private sector before being passed on to users.Platforms do not necessarily have to be expensive. The mobile phone is a good example of how something that is technologically sophisticated can almost be given away,with its cost recovered through service charges. Users are then coerced through clever marketing to upgrade to newer phones with more features to reinforce their dependence.
Whatever the outcome,it is obvious that technology will play an increasing part in our everyday lives.Beyond technology,digital convergence embraces the services,industrial practices and social behavior that form modern society. We have in our hands the technology to construct the most sophisticated machines ever built,but if they are unusable,simply because of their operating instructions,then recent lessons have taught us they will not survive.Whatever we design must be simple,reliable and useful.Perhaps this is where artificial intelligence will come in.
人工智能的来源
希望把媒体结合起来并像电视、电话、游戏、音乐和数据传输一样富有变化，数字集成时代将比以前著名的信息高速公路发展得好。要得到这单一的技术不是那么容易的。当前有三大主要电视广播标准是互不相容的。他们都无法跟许多支持网络的技术相比，他们各自有不同的宽带和物理介质。面向世界范围内接受的设计平台和交流体系，这个问题是不可克服的。
即使一旦确定全球标准，还会出现更多的障碍。网络因其反映时间长却不稳定而痛苦，因为这是以消费者需求为中心的“拉动技术”。推动技术与此相反，服务器只是把信息传给被动使用者，像电视和录音机一样。但是，单向传播的电视和互动网络之间某些方式的结合是我们未来媒体的基础。很难知道它是如何操作的。此外，网络和电视集成问题被定义为提供的服务之一。信息、娱乐和休闲对于不同需要都是第一位的。现在严重的疑虑是当消费者坐下来看连续剧时，是否有兴趣用电脑做些智力游戏。
除了消费者的习惯问题，基础设施的成本开始是很大的。在到达用户之前，先由政府和私人组织过目。平台不需要很昂贵。移动电话就是一个很好的例子，它说明复杂的技术也可以攻克。通过改变服务来重新获得成本。在敏锐的市场，被迫升级为有更多功能的，更新的电话以加强信任度。
不管结果如何，技术将在我们日常生活中起着越来越重要的作用。除了技术，数字集成还包括服务、商业经营和构成现代社会的种种行为。我们要用手中的技术建造最精密的机器。最近的事实告诉我们，如果仅仅因为操作指令而不能使用，那么它们将不能存在。无论如何，我们的设计必须简单、可靠且实用。这也许就是人工智能的来源。